In 2008 the Liberal incumbent Joe Volpe edged out Conservative Joe Oliver in Eglinton-Lawrence by just over 2,000 votes, to narrowly keep the seat he’s held since 1988. It was the closest the Conservatives came to capturing a Toronto riding. This time the two rivals are facing off again.
Eglinton-Lawrence is one of a number of close 2008 losses that the Conservatives are targeting. If they can win half of these seats, Harper's Conservatives will have that elusive majority government that so badly want. The targeted ridings have a high proportion of ethnic voters and Eglinton-Lawrence certainly qualifies. About 40 per cent of residents are immigrants, largely from Europe, but increasingly more are from Asia and the Middle East. About 15% of the riding is Jewish and they have generally voted Liberal. However, Stephen Harper's strong support for Israel has eroded Liberal support within the Jewish community. In addition, 11% of residents are Italian.
Although Conservative support for Israel will have no impact on the Jewish state, it still has resonated in that community. Other ridings with significant Jewish populations are seeing similar shifts in support. Liberal Carolyn Bennett in the Toronto riding of St. Paul’s appears secure, as does Liberal Anita Neville in Winnipeg South Centre.
But at least two other ridings, long considered safe Liberal seats, could be in play.
In Quebec, Irwin Cotler’s share of the popular vote dropped from 92 per cent in 1999 to 55 per cent in the last race, though he still enjoyed a 10,000-vote victory. In Toronto, Liberals Ken Dryden in York Centre saw his strong wins in 2006 wither to a thin margin of about 2,000 votes in 2008 similar to Volpe.
My own riding of Thornhill was captured by Conservative Peter Kent in 2008. Despite a high profile Jewish candidate as his opponent, Kent appears to be crusing to a comfortable win.
No comments:
Post a Comment