Latest federal seat projections - 3 days to go

It appears Stephen Harper may have outsmarted himself when it comes to election strategy. His plan was to concentrate on 10 or so seats to push him into majority territory. Also part of his strategy was to attack Michael Ignatieff (“he didn’t come back for you”). Finally he tried scare tactics where if the Conservatives did not win a majority then the opposition would attempt a “Parliamentary coup” and Canada would be run by separatists and socialists.

He did not have a true national campaign, it was really divide and conquer. There was little debate on policy other than a few wedge issue directed at the Conservative core. The only positive was taking credit for stewardship of the economy during a difficult time. For which the Conservatives deserve credit.

But the narrow and cautious approach might ultimately cost them their majority. Sure attacking Ignatieff worked. But voters considered the alternatives and decided it wasn’t just Harper or Ignatieff or Duceppe (for those in Quebec). There was also smiling Jack Layton who seemed to be getting a free ride. Targeting vulnerable opposition ridings was actually effective but in the past week the Conservatives have begun to lose seats to the NDP in BC and Quebec. Where initially the NDP popularity was splitting the left vote and benefiting the Conservatives, now everyone is losing seats to the NDP.

In Toronto, the NDP is likely to double their seats to four. There will likely be two new NDP members from BC, two from the Prairies and two more from the Maritime. But it is in Quebec where the NDP is expected to make the biggest gains. They are leading in 34 which would work out to a net increase of 32.

What worries me is that we will see a very weak crop of new MP in Parliament. When the Ontario NDP under Bob Rae swept into power in 1990, they went from 19 seats in the Legislature to 74. Many candidates who loyally agree to have their names on the ballot as sacrificial lambs without any expectation of winning woke up the day after the election in a role that were just qualified for. That is what will happen after May 2. While voters think they are electing Jack Layton, in reality only the voters in the Toronto-Danforth riding are voting for Layton. The rest of the country is voting for the local NDP candidate, warts and all. Afterall this isn't a Presidential election.

	5-Apr	12-Apr	19-Apr	23-Apr	26-Apr	29-Apr
Conservatives	157	152	148	157	161	149
Liberals	69	78	77	69	57	55
NDP	33	34	43	39	53	79
Bloc	49	43	39	42	36	24
Green	0	0	0	0	0	0
Others	0	0	0	0	0	1