Toronto to remain Liberal

With just over a week left until the federal election, Liberal support is fading across the country but Toronto. Polling data shows that the Liberals may take 20 Toronto seats with the remaining 2 seats going to the NDP.

There are a number of very tight races where the lead is less than 5%.

Don Valley West

Don Valley West is now represented by Liberal Rob Oliphant, who has held the riding since the 2008 federal election. Oliphant has carried the Liberal banner since longtime Liberal MP John Godfrey stepped down in the summer of 2008. In this election, Oliphant, the Liberal critic for multiculturalism, is facing off against Conservative candidate John Carmichael, a car dealership owner, who is taking his third crack at winning Don Valley West. In 2008 there were 2,771 votes separating Oliphant and Carmichael.

York Centre

A safe Liberal seat since 1962 but not this election. Ken Dryden, the incumbent, has seen his margins of victory over the Conservatives shrink from 11,202 votes in 2004, to 9,640 in 2006, to 2,090 in 2008. The Conservative rival, Mark Adler, is a high-profile businessman who founded the Economic Club of Canada, and who has been working hard in the riding in which he was born and raised, and in which he still lives. If the Conservatives win this one it might be a signal that Harper will get win a majority government.

Eglinton-Lawrence

This is another rematch between long-time Liberal Joe Volpe and Conservative Joe Oliver. Eglinton-Lawrence has been a Liberal stronghold since its boundaries were first conceived in the 1970s and held by Volpe since 1988 who is a past Cabinet Minister and Liberal leadership candidate. Conservative candidate Joe Oliver, a lawyer and businessman, came within just over 2,000 votes of unseating Volpe in 2008.

Trinity-Spadina

Despite significant gains in this election, New Democrats will have their work cut out for them if they're going to hang on to the Toronto riding now held by leader Jack Layton's wife, Olivia Chow. Chow first won Trinity-Spadina in 2006, but found herself neck and neck with her Liberal opponent throughout the last election before pulling ahead by what turned out to be a significant margin — more than 3,400 votes. But Christine Innes is back and more determined than ever to reclaim the seat held by her husband Tony Ianno for 13 years. Changing demographics may be a factor as the riding is less ethnic with new residents filling the towering condos along the lakeshore.